Published on August 9, 2025 |
The decline of Canadian tourism to the United States in 2025 is devastating for quintessential travel destinations in the country. As of June, the Canadian travel statistics agency recorded a 33.1% drop in Canadian travelers returning by car and a 22.1% decrease in air travel when compared to the prior year. This is the sixth month of continuous decline in Canadian traveler traffic, with the highest declines in Florida, California, and New York. While there is a myriad of factors contributing to this decline, increased geopolitical tensions and travel choice dynamics appear to be the most significant.
The recent decline in and out of the US for tourism comes in the wake of complicated political developments. In particular, the strained trade relations and the outlandish remarks by the former US President Donald Trump in consideration of making Canada the “51st state” have many Canadians putting travel plans on hold. In these mounting tensions, Canadian Prime Minister, Mr. Justin Trudeau, went as far as to recommend that Canadians take advantage of the country’s stunning national parks, historical wonders, and numerous localized tourist attractions as opposed to going abroad. This is a notable change of feeling, which has brought forth a mounting evidential change in travel booking data that showcases a substantial decline in Canadian traveler bookings to the US in the first half of 2025.

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Political Changes Impacting Travel to the U.S.
The relationship, or lack thereof, that exists between Canada and the U.S. has contributed to the decrease in travel to the U.S. Canada has suffered irreparably due to the decline in relations and reputational standing ever since President Trump’s hopeful plans to integrate Canada into the U.S. Canada was not pleased and, equally, Trip Trudeau’s Canadaudo’s urging Canadians not to travel to the U.S. encouraged opposition to travel.

Trudeau’s message, articulated in the Atlantic’s seminars, commended Canadians for avoiding the U.S and ultimately advised his citizens in February 2025 to seek substitute vacation plans focusing on Canada’s tourism industry. He pointed out that the country has a tremendous amount of breathtaking places to offer, not to mention its equally rich history and unmatched culture. His message is responding to a desire that has emerged among Canadians not to travel to the country, and what is more, in the first part of 2025, travel patterns showed that the popularity of the visit to Canada, along with the growing demand for European, South American, and Asian destinations, has outshone the U.S.
A Continuing Decrease in Travel Expenditures
The decline in Canadian tourism traffic in the U.S. is mirrored in the drop in travel spending. As the U.S. Travel Association reports, Canadians generated the most spending as international travelers, accounting for $20.5 billion in travel expenditures in 2024. However, the decline in Canadian tourism could be a tremendous blow to the U.S. economy. Canadian tourists spend more money than the average international visitor, and a 10% drop in visitors would equate to about $2.1 billion in tourism spending.
For years, Canadian tourists have been a deep and active segment of the U.S. travel economy, and states like Florida, California, and Nevada have benefited most. The most recent data, however, suggests that Canadians increasingly prefer to travel to regions that have more favorable political environments, are safer, and are more inviting for them as tourists.
States Most Impacted Financially by the Decline
Some states are disproportionately impacted by the financial ramifications of this decline. Florida, California, New York, and Texas are historically the most sought-after destinations for Canadian travelers. However, these states have experienced markedly lower visits this year. Borders, New Hampshire, for instance, reported Canadian tourism figures that were roughly 30% lower than in other years.
Canada’s tourism figures have dwindled, and areas that are close to Canada are feeling the impacts the hardest. Taylor Caswell, the New Hampshire commissioner for business and economic affairs, highlighted these gaps. The drop in cross-border movements is detrimental to Canadian business and tourism as they tend to be customers due to the lower spending threshold, fueling stays in local hotels, restaurants, and tourism attractions related to traveling.
In Montana, credit card data indicates a continuing trend, as Canadian tourist spending in Kalispell is down an average of 37% from January to April in 2025. The city of Whitefish, also in Montana, reported a 25% decrease in Canadian spending through May. Local business leaders, including Diane Medler from Discover Kalispell and Zak Anderson of Explore Whitefish, voiced concerns about the downturn, particularly given Canadian visitors’ previously dependable spending patterns.
Some states are taking a more proactive approach to try to repair relationships with Canadian tourists. For instance, New Hampshire plans to conduct a trade delegation visit in September 2025. Governor Kelly Ayotte has pointed to the economic relationship between New Hampshire and Canada, as well as the state’s ability to reclaim Canadian tourists through the right marketing and relationship strategies, as reasons for optimism.
In other regions, local tourism boards are pivoting their focus to expanding their visitor demographics to include international travelers. The tourism industry, in response, has introduced specific marketing strategies aimed at enticing Canadian tourists, including curated multisensory tours that showcase local gems, to entice travel even in the face of political headwinds.
Economic Impact and Long-Term Trends
The gap in Canadian tourism to the United States has pronounced economic impacts, especially in areas where the tourism industry is a major economic driver. The absence of many Canadian tourists in those states translates to an observable loss in travel spending by visitors and translates into economic grief for regions that rely on tourism. Although some regions are trying to reverse the trend with aggressive marketing, the general outlook appears to indicate a significant shift in the market where Canadian travelers are forced to adapt to a new reality.
The United States of America might have to come up with radical solutions to reverse the outflow of Canadian tourists to alternative destinations that do not offer a political headache, coupled with a lethargic bureaucratic system. Turning the tide and transforming the United States into a magnet for Canadian tourists will require years of sustained effort, along with serious policy shifts and diplomatic work to mend the two nations’ relations.
Conclusion: A Change In Patterns For Cross-Border Travel
As the political and economic dynamics of the two nations shift, Canadian tourism to the U.S. has drastically declined. Although this presents a challenge for U.S. tourism, it underscores the larger phenomenon of travel restrictions based on political conflict. It will be interesting to observe how the U.S. adjusts its tourism approach to accommodate the rising number of Canadian travelers looking for calmer and more secure holiday destinations, either nearby or overseas.
(Source: Canada’s National Statistical Agency, U.S. Travel Association, Taylor Caswell, Diane Medler, Zak Anderson, Governor Kelly Ayotte)

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Tags: California, Canada, florida, new hampshire, New York

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