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Travel + Leisure (TNL) Sees Price Target Uplift Post Q2 Results

Citizens JMP has increased its target price for Travel + Leisure (TNL, Financial) from $60 to $70, maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares. This adjustment follows the company’s strong performance in the second quarter. According to the analyst, Travel + Leisure is strategically positioned for future growth, thanks to the strength and diversity of its brands, which include Wyndham, Margaritaville, and Accor.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast

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Based on the one-year price targets offered by 12 analysts, the average target price for Travel+Leisure Co (TNL, Financial) is $63.92 with a high estimate of $73.00 and a low estimate of $54.00. The average target implies an
upside of 3.31%
from the current price of $61.87. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Travel Leisure Co (TNL) Forecast page.

Based on the consensus recommendation from 11 brokerage firms, Travel+Leisure Co’s (TNL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating “Outperform” status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.

Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Travel+Leisure Co (TNL, Financial) in one year is $53.60, suggesting a
downside
of 13.37% from the current price of $61.87. GF Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. More detailed data can be found on the Travel Leisure Co (TNL) Summary page.

TNL Key Business Developments

Release Date: July 23, 2025

  • Revenue: $1.02 billion, up 3% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $250 million, up 2% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted Earnings Per Share: $1.65, up 9% year-over-year.
  • Vacation Ownership Revenue: $853 million, up 6% year-over-year.
  • Volume Per Guest (VPG): $3,251, up 7% year-over-year.
  • Travel and Membership Revenue: $166 million, down 6% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $123 million for the quarter.
  • Operating Cash Flow: $353 million for the first six months of the year.
  • Shareholder Returns: $107 million returned, including $37 million in dividends and $70 million in share repurchases.
  • Liquidity Position: Over $800 million, including $212 million in cash and cash equivalents.
  • Leverage Ratio: Ended the quarter at 3.4 times levered.
  • Future Guidance: Full year adjusted EBITDA expected to be $955 million to $985 million.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Travel+Leisure Co (TNL, Financial) reported strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with over $1 billion in revenue and $250 million in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
  • The Vacation Ownership business showed healthy year-over-year growth, with volume per guest exceeding expectations and a consistent adjusted EBITDA margin of 25%.
  • The company returned $107 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating strong free cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
  • Travel+Leisure Co (TNL) is expanding its brand portfolio with new sales locations and partnerships, including Margaritaville in Nashville and a marketing partnership with Hornblower.
  • The company is investing in technology and innovation, with the Club Wyndham app accounting for 19% of bookings and plans to launch the WorldMark app in Q4.

Negative Points

  • The Travel and Membership segment faced challenges, with revenue down 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA declining 11%, partly due to industry consolidation and M&A activity.
  • There is ongoing pressure from exchange business consolidation, impacting transaction volumes and contributing to the segment’s underperformance.
  • Despite strong performance in Vacation Ownership, the company did not raise its gross VOI sales guidance, indicating potential concerns about tour growth.
  • The company faces macroeconomic uncertainties, which could impact consumer behavior and new owner sales, despite current resilience.
  • Delinquencies showed an uptick earlier in the year, although they have since moderated, indicating potential risks in credit quality management.

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