Published on July 20, 2025
Upstate New York is dealing with a surprise problem this summer, a significant drop in tourism from Canada. As travel from the north drops, analysts are monitoring trends and predicting economic conditions. This downturn is not just one of place — it reveals deeper contours in currency swings, frontier perceptions, global policy and local tenacity.

Realities Behind The Tourism Industry Trends

Statistics compiled by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics reveal a grim reality. Vehicle crossings from Canada in May 2025 decreased by about 25 percent, or approximately 400,000 fewer cars than in the same period last year. Crossings across the land border in the north, and critical ports such as Peace Bridge and Rainbow Bridge, also fell by 22-29%.

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These numbers are significant. Many businesses in tourism that are seasonal depend on border traffic that peaks in the run-up to summer. That dip, which hit the June-August period, highlights shifting realities in cross border travel, and prompts the question of whether this is a blip or the start of more prolonged slide.

Economic Impact: Pinpointing The Fallout

The first victim, of course, has been revenue for small tourism operators. Campgrounds, bicycle shops, kayak rentals and family-pack motels are reporting revenue declines of between 20 and 30 percent, with the brunt of the loss coming from fewer Canadian bookings. Nearby towns reported drops in the sales of restaurants, retailers and hotels as visitor foot traffic drooped.

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Estimates indicate it could be costing Upstate tens of millions of dollars in direct spending — counting hotel stays, meals, gas and shopping. There are labor effects as well: people are having their staff hours cut, seasonal hires are being delayed, and ancillary businesses (like laundromats, like tour guides) are feeling the squeeze. Although no official state-level G.D.P. destruction estimates have been released, local statistics imply strain.

Currency & Affordability: The Double Whammy Pressures

Economic headwinds are two-fold. First, a weaker exchange rate — currently hovering at CAD$1 = US$0.73 — means U.S. vacations are about 27 percent pricier in Canadian dollars than they were in 2014, a meaningful deterrent in a tight travel budget. And secondly, Canadian households are also cautious about macroeconomic uncertainty—tariffs, inflation, and macroeconomic risk in general—keeping travel across-the-border to a minimum.

Perception Of Border & Security Issues

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Beyond costs, traveler psychology matters. Canadian government travel advisories warn that U.S. border officers may search electronic devices and apply stricter scrutiny to criminal records. Anecdotally, stories are filtering out on social media of Canadian detainees experiencing unexplained delays or invasive questioning — adding to the reluctance, though such cases are infrequent.

International Relations & Tourism Flow

This decline is part of a broader tale: the “Canadian boycott” that took place in February 2025, when Canadians turned on the United States and stopped buying U.S. goods and visiting the United States because of poor U.S.-Canada relations and mutual tariffs. Half of all Canadians reportedly scrapped U.S. travel plans in winter 2025, polls show. With airlines cutting seats and tour operators seeing bookings depressed by between 40 and 70 percent, the impact is both immediate and long-term.
It’s not just this: other allied countries are experiencing similar air travel contractions, and U.S. duty‑free sales are down 40–50 percent as Canadians stay home. Those are trends that highlight just how much diplomatic strife can ripple through every day economies.

Recovery & Resilience: Strategies Underway

Not all hope is lost. Regional tourism boards — especially in border towns like Buffalo — have promoted pro-Canadian campaigns. Buffalo, for example, is urging “Buffalo Loves Canada,” with gift-card raffles and gratitude messaging. “Tour companies are offering them at a discount,” hoping to capitalize on repeat cross-border shoppers and loyal customers, according to the Adirondacks chairwoman.
A smarter pivot is emerging: Upstate venues are courting domestic tourists with a version of bundled packages, “staycation” experiences and adventurous off-season deals. Places like Lake George are weighing year-round growth to lower reliance on the summer and Canadians.

Policy & Legislative Levers: The Public Sector’s Response

Public officials are getting involved: Senator Chuck Schumer has announced a 22–25 percent decline in crossings, threatening major financial consequences. Gov. Hochul has opposed CBP’s previous plan to cut hours at crossings and called for federal money to secure the northern ports.
In the pipeline are state-level stimulus packages for tourism businesses, possible tax credits and larger marketing budgets to counter the drop in Canadian visitors. But there’s a lot riding on U.S.-Canada diplomatic progress, as tariffs rollbacks or a return to trade détente could very quickly alter the course of travel.

Final Take

The tourism industry in upstate New York is dealing with a tricky convergence of trends. Falling Canadian border crossings and currency displacement add to a fragile summer season. Border anxiety is yet another layer of deterrence. Here at home, businesses and officials are adjusting — whether that means launching campaigns or selling deals or airing complaints to see whether they can drum up support. But the long-term recovery will depend heavily on policy coordination and diplomatic detente.
In the coming weeks, let us look for cross volume and booking data to stand out. If there’s tariff relief and a better diplomatic tone we could see a rally. If not, communities across Upstate New York will need to continue to adapt — from seasonal, Canada-focused tourism to broadly diversified year-round economies.

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Tags: Canadian tourists avoid U.S., Canadian travel boycott, economic impact, frontier perceptions, Lake Placid, less Canadian tourists, New York tourism decline, Upstate New York

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