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Exclusive: Predictions differ sharply on how many British travellers will go to America this year
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As official US data reveals a 17 per cent year-on-year slump in Europeans visiting the United States in March 2025, airlines are slashing summer prices to fill planes.
Normally nonstop air fares between the UK and US soar towards £1,000 return in July and August.
But The Independent has found Manchester–New York flights on Aer Lingus on sale for just £368 return.
Between London Heathrow and San Francisco, Air Canada – faced with a slump in demand to the US – is offering fares of £511 return in July, with a connection in Toronto or Montreal.
Europeans are able to access very low fares via the UK. British Airways is selling return tickets from Copenhagen via London Heathrow to New York JFK in the peak holiday month of August for just £365 – less than half the cost of a London-New York flight alone.
The latest figures from the US International Trade Administration, which seeks to promote American tourism, show extraordinary declines from key European markets since Donald Trump was elected as president.
Immediately upon taking office, Mr Trump ordered much tougher controls on “all aliens seeking admission to the United States,” demanding they are “vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible” – raising fears among prospective visitors that they may be deported.
In addition, the president has expressed a wish to acquire both Canada and Greenland for the US.
Although data on Canadian arrivals is not yet published in the official figures, the effect on the Danish market appears clear. Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. Arrivals from Denmark to the US were down around one-third year-on-year.
Some of the slump is attributable to the early Easter in 2024, which boosted numbers last year. The shutdown of Heathrow on 21 March will have had a marginal effect, causing some European travellers to cancel trips altogether after more than 700 outbound flights were axed.
Four months ago the research group Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, predicted a 9 per cent increase in visitors to the US in 2025. That is now expected to be a 9 per cent decline. The organisation says: “Trump’s policies and pronouncements have produced a negative sentiment shift toward the US among international travellers.
“The correlating decline in international travel to the US is expected to be strongest in 2025, with persisting degrees of impact throughout the remainder of Trump’s second term.”
Tourism Economics identified as key headwinds, “negative sentiment” and “border and immigration policies and uncertainty”. It predicts a decline of over 20 per cent in visitor numbers from Canada.
US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said it does not “retaliate against individuals for expressing their views”.
In an online statement the agency said: “Claims that CBP is searching more electronic media due to the administration change are false. CBP’s search numbers are consistent with increases since 2021, and less than 0.01 per cent of travellers have their devices searched.
“These searches are conducted to detect digital contraband, terrorism-related content and information relevant to visitor admissibility, all of which play a critical role in national security.”
Britain is third only to Canada and Mexico as a source of tourists to the US. Visits from the UK to the US fell by one-seventh (14.3 per cent) in March 2025 compared with a year earlier, according to International Trade Administration figures.
Yet UK travel industry insiders say demand remains strong. Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of the Advantage Travel Partnership said: “Across our travel agency network we are not seeing any sign of a decline in demand for travel to the US currently, and bookings continue to be robust, with New York and Orlando performing as strong favourite US destinations.
“Given we have a late Easter this year, this will distort March booking patterns. However, week-on-week bookings to the US are definitely holding strong and as of 31 March sales across our travel agent partners were up 11 per cent compared to the previous week, and up 5 per cent compared to the same week last year.
“Generally the appetite for travel continues unabated, with factors like cost of living pressures and the hunt for value-driven options actually fuelling demand rather than diminishing it.”
The president and CEO of New York City Tourism + Conventions, Julie Coker, predicts a 10 per cent increase in UK visits to the city in 2025.
Paul Charles, chief executive of The PC Agency and former director of communications for Virgin Atlantic, said: “While there are some early indications of a reduction in demand to the US, experience tells us that airlines, hotels and car hire firms usually tweak their prices and offer enticing offers to build back demand over time.
“Also, consumers still want to go away and that may lead to other destinations benefiting, such as Canada, inbound travel to the UK, wider Europe, and the Middle East as travellers search alternative places for their holidays.
“A silver lining for the industry is that many Easter and summer holiday bookings to the US will already have been booked, during the early part of the year, creating less worry about future revenues.”
Delta Air Lines, one of the giant American carriers, has cancelled its expansion plans for the second half of 2025 and warned that it will defer deliveries of new Airbus aircraft while tariffs remain in place.
The chief executive of Delta Air Lines, Ed Bastian, previously said the incoming Trump administration would be a “breath of fresh air” for airlines after what he called government “overreach” under President Joe Biden.
His company donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, along with the same amount from United Airlines and Boeing.
Paul English, co-founder of the travel website Kayak told the FT: “In just two months [Trump] has destroyed the reputation of the US, shown one way by diminished travel from the EU to the US. This is not only one more terrible blow to the US economy, it also represents reputation damage that could take generations to repair.”
Source: US International Trade Administration; figures rounded to the nearest million
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