Our neighbors to the north aren’t visiting as often as they once were.
Data shows that Canadian arrivals to the United States have been down in recent months. Tensions between the two countries rose last year amid President Donald Trump’s trade war and branding of the country as the 51st state. Some travelers opted not to visit under the new administration, citing various reasons, including federal policies targeting the LGBTQ+ community and reports of tourists being detained by immigration officers.
More than a year into Trump’s second term, here’s what the travel numbers show.
The United States saw about 4.2 million fewer visitor arrivals from Canada in 2025 compared to the prior year, according to the Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office. That represents a 20.9% drop and the second consecutive year of decline. Those numbers were down by a much smaller margin of 1.3% in 2024.
In February 2026 alone, there were 1.5 million return trips from the United States among Canadian residents by air and automobile, representing a 14.5% drop from the same month in 2025, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada.
“When comparing the February 2026 figure with that of February 2024, before the start of trade tensions with the United States in early 2025, a sharper decline (-31.5%) was observed,” the statistical office said in an early March news release. “In February 2026, both return trips by automobile (-12.9%) and by air (-17.6%) declined from February 2025.”
A January survey of 1,000 Canadian adults released by Longwoods International found that 59% said “U.S. government policies, trade practices and political statements make them less likely to travel to the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the company said in a news release. That was up from 53% in October, but down from a July 2025 high of 63%.
“Political disputes between the U.S. and Canada continue to be a headwind for Canadian visitation to the U.S.,” Amir Eylon, Longwoods International’s president and CEO, said in the release “And the Canadian perception of the safety of travel in the U.S. has steadily declined during the last ten months.”
Drops in visitation have ripple effects for the American economy, too. A 10% decline in Canadian travel “could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses,” according to the U.S. Travel Association.
U.S. outbound visitor departures to Canada were down by 4.7% in 2025 as compared with the year before, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. That marked the first decline since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, recent preliminary data from Statistics Canada showed that American visitation to Canada by air and automobile was up.
In February, trips to Canada among U.S. residents reached 959,600, an increase of 6.1% from the same month a year earlier. That marked “the first increase after 12 consecutive months of year-over-year declines,” the release said (though there were periods of growth within specific segments).
The office recorded 720,400 trips by automobile and 239,200 by air.
Joe Amati, Senior Executive Director of Global Market and Brand Intelligence at Destination Canada, said that toward the beginning of 2025, there was a “bit of a decrease” in arrivals to Canada via all modes of travel but momentum picked up as the year went on. Air travel was roughly the same year-over-year as compared with 2024 he said – overnight air arrivals were down just 1.6% – though there were also some decreases in land arrivals.
Overnight land arrivals were down 10% for the year, but declines in February, March and April moderated in the fall. Same-day land arrivals were down 2% overall, but followed a similar pattern of early declines followed by recovery later in the year.
Amati said Canada’s brand health “remains strong” among American travelers. Destination Canada expects revenue from U.S. visitors to grow 5.3% by 2030, and Americans will represent more arrivals than any other country over that time.
“And that’s because of this shared culture, this shared partnership, the shared friendship that we have between our countries, as well as obviously, the sheer proximity,” he said.
This story was updated to add new information.
Nathan Diller is a consumer travel reporter for USA TODAY based in Nashville. You can reach him at ndiller@usatoday.com.
