Published on March 20, 2026
By: Tuhin Sarkar
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New York unites Michigan, Florida, Nevada, California, Vermont and other US states in a shocking tourism twist as the closest neighbour Canada tourists vanish fast. As the trade war intensifies and the Trump slump deepens, tourism policies vanish confidence and Canadians abandoning US trips accelerates across New York, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, California and Vermont. Meanwhile, Mexico marks 6.4 percent increase year-on-year, reshaping North American travel flows and exposing how US states losing Canada tourists is becoming a defining crisis.
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However, this is not just a slowdown. It is a structural shift. Canadian travellers are not disappearing; instead, they are redirecting demand. As New York unites Michigan, Florida, Nevada, California, Vermont and other US states losing Canada tourists again, the trade war narrative and Trump slump pressure continues to influence decisions. Consequently, tourism policies vanish their effectiveness, and Canadians abandoning US trips becomes a growing pattern.
At the same time, Mexico marks 6.4 percent increase year-on-year again, strengthening its position. Therefore, Travel And Tour World urges readers to read the entire story to understand how New York, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, California, Vermont and other US states are facing this dramatic tourism reset.
The United States is undergoing a sharp tourism contraction as Canadian visitors, historically its largest international segment, pull back across 2025 and into 2026. Official data confirms a steep decline in return trips, with both road and air travel showing sustained weakness. This is not a short-term fluctuation. Instead, it reflects a structural shift in travel behaviour, where Canadians are choosing alternative destinations over the United States. From border regions to major leisure hubs, the impact is spreading across multiple US states, reshaping local economies and forcing a rethink of tourism strategies.
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The trajectory of tourism across key US states is entering a new phase. After a strong post-pandemic recovery between 2022 and 2024 and a peak year in 2025, early data for 2026 now points to a clear slowdown. While domestic travel remains resilient, the sharp decline in Canadian visitors—historically the largest inbound market—is beginning to reshape visitor patterns across states such as California, Florida, New York and Nevada.
The shift is not abrupt but structural. The data suggests that the United States is moving from a recovery-driven growth cycle into a period of stabilisation, with international demand, particularly from Canada, acting as the primary drag.
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Tourism data between 2022 and 2024 reflects a classic recovery curve. California saw visitor numbers rise from approximately 250 million in 2022 to 275 million in 2024. Florida moved from around 137 million to 143 million in the same period. New York also recorded steady gains, with New York City alone reaching over 64 million visitors in 2024.
This growth phase was driven largely by domestic travel, which rebounded quickly after pandemic restrictions eased. International travel followed at a slower pace but contributed to the upward momentum. By 2025, most major states reached or approached peak visitor volumes, marking a high point in the recovery cycle.
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The data positions 2025 as a peak year across multiple states. California recorded approximately 278 million visitors, while Florida crossed 143 million. New York and its urban centres also maintained high visitor volumes, and Las Vegas in Nevada remained a strong performer despite early signs of slowing.
However, beneath these headline numbers, structural weaknesses were already emerging. International travel was not recovering at the same pace as domestic travel, and Canadian visitor numbers were beginning to decline. While total arrivals remained strong, the composition of visitors was changing, signalling that the growth momentum was not evenly distributed.
New York, particularly its upstate and border regions, is facing a visible and measurable decline in Canadian arrivals. Cross-border travel, once driven by frequent shopping trips and short leisure visits, has slowed considerably. Retail outlets, fuel stations and hospitality businesses that depended on spontaneous Canadian traffic are now reporting reduced activity. The decline is especially pronounced in areas close to the border where economic ecosystems were built around this steady flow. The change indicates a deeper behavioural shift, as Canadians appear less inclined to make routine visits, even for short durations.
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Michigan’s proximity to Canada has historically made it one of the most interconnected tourism and retail markets in the United States. However, the sharp fall in Canadian land crossings is now disrupting this relationship. Cities like Detroit are experiencing reduced footfall in casinos, malls and entertainment venues that once thrived on Canadian visitors. The decline in same-day and overnight trips is particularly damaging, as these segments generated consistent revenue streams. Businesses that relied on predictable cross-border movement are now facing uncertainty, forcing them to adjust pricing, marketing and operational strategies to compensate for the loss.
Florida’s tourism model has long relied on Canadian snowbirds seeking warmer climates during winter months. The current decline in Canadian visitors is therefore having a disproportionate impact on the state’s hospitality sector. Extended stays, which once supported rental markets, local businesses and seasonal employment, are becoming less common. This shift is not solely driven by cost factors but also by changing travel preferences. Many Canadians are now opting for destinations outside the United States, reducing Florida’s appeal as a default winter escape and altering long-standing travel patterns.
Florida’s tourism model is heavily anchored in domestic travel, which has provided a buffer against the decline in Canadian visitors. While the state has seen a reduction in Canadian arrivals, the overall impact on total visitor numbers is less pronounced compared to states with higher international dependency.
However, the decline is still significant in specific segments. Canadian snowbirds, who traditionally stay for extended periods, contribute disproportionately to local economies. Their reduced presence is affecting long-term rentals, seasonal businesses and local spending patterns. While Florida remains relatively stable, the quality and duration of visits are changing.
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California’s diverse tourism offerings, from coastal attractions to entertainment hubs, have traditionally drawn large numbers of Canadian visitors. However, the current downturn reflects a broader reallocation of travel demand. Fewer Canadians are choosing California for holidays, affecting cities, theme parks and leisure destinations. This decline is significant because Canadian tourists often contribute high-value spending across accommodation, dining and entertainment sectors. The shift suggests that alternative global destinations are becoming more competitive, reducing California’s share of international tourism and creating pressure on local tourism stakeholders.
California’s tourism sector remains one of the most diversified in the United States, which has helped cushion the impact of declining Canadian visitors. The state benefits from a strong domestic base as well as a broad mix of international markets. However, even California is beginning to show signs of softening in 2026, with visitor numbers projected to dip slightly from their 2025 peak.
The decline is not severe but indicates a loss of growth momentum. High-value international segments, including Canadian tourists, are becoming less reliable. As a result, California’s tourism ecosystem is increasingly dependent on domestic travel to sustain overall volumes.
Las Vegas, a major international tourism hub, is feeling the impact of declining Canadian arrivals through reduced hotel occupancy and lower casino footfall. Canadian visitors have historically formed a key segment of Las Vegas tourism, particularly for short leisure trips. The current decline is forcing operators to introduce targeted incentives, including promotional packages and pricing adjustments aimed at attracting this audience back. However, these efforts highlight a deeper challenge. The reduction in demand is not easily reversible, as it reflects broader shifts in travel behaviour rather than temporary market conditions.
New York’s tourism sector is highly dependent on international visitors, making it particularly sensitive to shifts in global travel patterns. Although total visitor numbers remain high, the slowdown in international arrivals, including Canadians, is creating stagnation in growth.
New York City, a major gateway for international tourism, has seen visitor numbers plateau after reaching strong levels in 2024 and 2025. The reduction in cross-border travel is also affecting upstate regions that rely on Canadian visitors for retail and short-term tourism. This dual impact is placing pressure on both urban and regional tourism economies.
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Nevada, and particularly Las Vegas, is among the most vulnerable states due to its reliance on discretionary travel and international visitors. After reaching approximately 41.7 million visitors in 2024, the state began to see a decline in 2025, which has continued into 2026.
The drop in Canadian visitors is compounding broader challenges, including shifts in consumer spending behaviour. Las Vegas depends heavily on leisure travel, entertainment and gaming, all of which are sensitive to economic and behavioural changes. As a result, Nevada is experiencing a sharper contraction compared to other states.
The data strongly suggests that Canadians are not reducing their overall travel activity. Instead, they are reallocating their travel spending to destinations outside the United States. This is evident from the increase in overseas travel by Canadians, even as trips to the US decline.
This behavioural shift is critical. It indicates that the United States is losing market share rather than facing a global downturn in travel demand. Competing destinations are attracting Canadian tourists with competitive pricing, diverse experiences and favourable travel conditions, making it harder for US states to retain this key segment.
A growing number of Canadian travellers are reconsidering trips to the United States, as political tensions, trade practices and government policies increasingly influence travel decisions. According to the latest Longwoods International tracking study, 59% of Canadians say US policies make them less likely to visit the country in the next 12 months. This marks an increase from 53% in October 2025, although it remains below the peak of 63% recorded in July 2025, indicating persistent but slightly stabilising concerns.
Among those whose travel decisions are being affected, 73% identify tariffs and statements by US political leaders as the primary reasons behind their reluctance to travel. These factors are shaping perceptions of the United States as a less favourable destination, particularly in the context of ongoing trade disputes and political rhetoric. The findings suggest that policy-driven sentiment is now playing a direct role in altering travel behaviour, rather than being a background influence.
The study also highlights a broader shift in perception, with concerns extending beyond policy to issues of safety and overall travel experience. Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International, notes that political disputes between the two countries continue to act as a headwind for Canadian travel to the United States. He further emphasises that Canadian perceptions of travel safety in the US have steadily declined over the past ten months, reinforcing hesitation among potential travellers.
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As a result of these concerns, many Canadians are actively changing their travel plans. Among those influenced by US policies, 45% say they will replace US trips with domestic travel within Canada, a significant increase from 37% in October. Meanwhile, 24% are opting for alternative international destinations, and 11% plan to cancel their trips altogether.
Those choosing to travel abroad instead of visiting the United States are increasingly favouring destinations such as Europe, Mexico and the Caribbean. This shift indicates a clear reallocation of travel demand, with Canadians seeking destinations perceived as more stable or appealing.
The decline in Canadian visitors is translating into tangible economic losses. States that rely heavily on cross-border travel, such as New York and Michigan, are experiencing immediate impacts on retail and hospitality sectors. Meanwhile, leisure destinations like Florida and Nevada are seeing changes in spending patterns and occupancy rates.
The financial implications extend beyond tourism businesses. Reduced visitor spending affects local tax revenues, employment and supply chains. As the decline persists, these economic pressures are likely to intensify, particularly in regions with limited diversification in their tourism base.
Early trends in 2026 point to a stabilisation phase rather than continued growth. Visitor numbers are no longer rising at the same pace, and in some states, they are beginning to decline. The slowdown is driven primarily by international travel, with Canadian visitors playing a central role.
This suggests that the US tourism industry is entering a new phase where growth cannot rely solely on recovery dynamics. Instead, it will need to adapt to changing global travel patterns, increased competition and evolving consumer preferences.

Smaller border states such as Vermont are particularly vulnerable to the decline in Canadian visitors due to their heavy reliance on proximity-based travel. Unlike larger states with diversified tourism sources, these regions depend significantly on cross-border traffic for economic stability. The reduction in Canadian arrivals is therefore having an outsized impact on local businesses, employment and regional development. Small towns and communities that once benefited from steady visitor flows are now facing reduced economic activity, highlighting the structural risks of depending on a single international market.
Official statistics clearly demonstrate the severity and persistence of the downturn. Canadian return trips from the United States have dropped sharply, with significant declines recorded across both land and air travel. The contraction has continued for over a year, making it one of the longest sustained declines in cross-border tourism between the two countries. The consistency of the data indicates that this is not a temporary disruption. Instead, it reflects a fundamental change in travel patterns, with long-term implications for the US tourism industry and its reliance on Canadian visitors.

The evidence suggests that Canadians are not travelling less but are instead choosing different destinations. While trips to the United States have declined, travel to overseas destinations has increased, indicating a clear shift in preferences. This behaviour points to a reallocation of travel demand rather than a reduction in overall tourism activity. Canadians are exploring alternative markets that offer competitive pricing, diverse experiences or more favourable conditions, leaving the United States with a reduced share of outbound Canadian travel.
The financial impact of the decline is substantial, with billions in tourism revenue at risk. Canadian visitors have traditionally contributed significantly to the US economy through spending on accommodation, retail and entertainment. The current reduction in arrivals is translating into measurable losses across multiple sectors. Border regions, in particular, are experiencing immediate economic effects, while larger tourism states are seeing declines in occupancy rates and visitor spending. These losses are not only affecting businesses but also have wider implications for employment and regional economic stability.
The United States recorded 68,287,793 total international visitors year-to-date in 2025, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year decline. In absolute terms, this translates into a loss of over 4 million visitors compared to the previous year. This contraction signals a slowdown in inbound tourism recovery following the strong rebound seen in earlier post-pandemic years.
The decline is not evenly distributed across all regions. Instead, it is driven by specific markets, particularly Canada, which has experienced a significant drop. At the same time, certain segments such as Mexico have shown resilience and growth, partially offsetting the broader downturn.
Canada remains a critical market for US tourism, but in 2025 it has become the largest source of decline. The data shows 16,018,525 Canadian visitors year-to-date, representing a 20.9% decrease compared to the previous year. This equates to a loss of over 4.2 million visitors, making Canada the single biggest contributor to the overall drop in international arrivals.
This decline is particularly significant because Canadian visitors traditionally account for a large share of inbound travel, especially through land crossings. The magnitude of the drop suggests a structural shift rather than a temporary fluctuation. Reduced cross-border travel, changing preferences and external factors are all contributing to this downturn.
Given the scale of Canadian travel to the United States, this contraction has widespread implications for border states, retail sectors and short-haul tourism markets that rely heavily on frequent visits.
Canadian-resident travel patterns in February 2026 highlight a shifting landscape in international mobility. Total return trips from abroad, including both the United States and overseas destinations, reached approximately 2.8 million. This represents a decline of 5.7% compared to February 2025. At first glance, this suggests a general slowdown in travel. However, a closer analysis reveals that the decline is not uniform. Instead, it is heavily concentrated in travel from the United States, while overseas travel is expanding. This divergence indicates that Canadians are not travelling less overall but are increasingly redirecting their travel choices toward destinations beyond the United States.
Return trips from the United States totalled 1.5 million in February 2026, reflecting a sharp 14.5% decline compared to the same month in 2025. This drop is significant because the United States has traditionally been the most accessible and frequently visited destination for Canadians. The reduction signals a weakening of cross-border travel demand. The data suggests that fewer Canadians are choosing the United States for both short visits and longer stays, marking a departure from long-established travel patterns that once defined North American mobility.
When the February 2026 figures are compared with those from February 2024, the scale of the decline becomes even more striking. Return trips from the United States have fallen by 31.5% over this two-year period. This comparison is particularly important because it reflects travel behaviour before the onset of trade tensions between Canada and the United States in early 2025. The sharp drop suggests that the decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation but a structural shift influenced by broader geopolitical and economic factors. It indicates a sustained change in how Canadians perceive and prioritise travel to the United States.
The decline in travel from the United States is evident across both major transportation modes. Automobile return trips fell by 12.9% compared to February 2025, while air travel saw an even steeper decline of 17.6%. This dual contraction highlights the widespread nature of the slowdown. Road travel, which has historically dominated Canada-US tourism due to proximity and convenience, is weakening. At the same time, air travel—often associated with longer or leisure-focused trips—is also declining. This suggests that Canadians are reducing travel to the United States across all trip types, from quick cross-border visits to planned vacations.
In contrast to the decline in US travel, return trips from overseas destinations are increasing. Canadian residents returning from overseas by air reached 1.3 million in February 2026, marking a 7.2% rise compared to the same month in 2025. This growth demonstrates that Canadians are maintaining their appetite for international travel but are choosing different destinations. The increase in overseas travel reflects expanding global connectivity, competitive travel offerings and a broader range of experiences available outside North America. It also suggests that international travel demand remains strong despite the overall decline in return trips.
A key milestone in February 2026 is the shift in the balance between US and overseas travel. For the second consecutive month, more Canadians returned from overseas destinations by air, at 1.3 million, than from the United States by automobile, which stood at 1.0 million. This is a notable reversal of traditional trends, where US road travel consistently dominated. The data underscores a structural transformation in travel behaviour, indicating that overseas destinations are becoming more central to Canadian travel patterns.
Daily return patterns in February 2026 also provide insight into travel behaviour. The highest number of returns was recorded on Monday, February 16, with 148,300 travellers returning to Canada. This spike aligns with a series of public holidays across multiple provinces, including Family Day, Heritage Day and Islander Day. Such holidays typically drive short-term travel and return surges. In contrast, the lowest number of returns was observed on Wednesday, February 4, with 75,200 travellers. This variation highlights the influence of seasonal and calendar-based factors on travel volumes.
The overall data points to a clear structural shift in Canadian travel preferences. While total return trips have declined slightly, the composition of travel is changing significantly. The United States is losing its dominant position as the primary destination for Canadian travellers, particularly for short-distance trips. At the same time, overseas travel is gaining momentum, reflecting a diversification of travel choices. This shift suggests that Canadians are increasingly seeking varied international experiences and are less reliant on traditional cross-border travel.
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In contrast to Canada, Mexico has emerged as a strong growth driver in 2025. The United States recorded 17,980,030 Mexican visitors, marking a 6.4% increase year-on-year, with an additional 1.08 million visitors compared to the previous year.
This growth highlights the strength of regional travel demand and the importance of Mexico as a stabilising force within US inbound tourism. Increased connectivity, economic ties and strong cross-border movement are supporting this upward trend.
Mexico’s growth partially offsets the decline from Canada, but not enough to fully compensate for the overall loss in international arrivals. Nonetheless, it underscores the shifting balance within North American travel flows.
The data identifies the top five overseas countries contributing to US tourism in 2025. The United Kingdom leads with over 4.05 million visitors, followed by India with 2.06 million, Japan with 1.97 million, Brazil with 1.92 million, and Germany with 1.77 million.
These five countries together account for approximately 11.77 million visitors, representing a substantial share of overseas travel. The presence of India and Brazil among the top markets reflects the growing importance of emerging economies, while traditional markets such as the UK, Japan and Germany continue to play a significant role.
This mix of mature and emerging markets provides some diversification within the overseas segment, helping to stabilise overall visitor numbers despite declines in certain regions.
The data for the top five overseas countries in the current month provides insight into short-term travel trends. The United Kingdom remains the leading market with 319,162 visitors, followed by Brazil, Japan, Colombia and South Korea.
The presence of countries such as Colombia and South Korea in the monthly rankings indicates evolving travel patterns and the increasing importance of diverse source markets. These short-term trends suggest that while some traditional markets are softening, new and emerging markets are gaining traction.
The data highlights a crucial economic insight: every 40 international visitors support one US job. This underscores the direct link between tourism and employment across sectors such as hospitality, retail, transportation and entertainment.
With a decline of over 4 million international visitors in 2025, the potential impact on employment is significant. Reduced visitor numbers translate into lower spending, affecting businesses and local economies across the country. This makes the decline in Canadian visitors particularly concerning, given their historically high contribution to US tourism revenue.
New York unites Michigan, Florida, Nevada, California, Vermont and other US states losing closest neighbour Canada tourists as the trade war and Trump slump reshape travel demand. Tourism policies vanish their impact while Canadians abandoning US trips continues to rise. The decline is widespread, affecting border and leisure states alike. In contrast, Mexico marks 6.4 percent increase year-on-year, capturing diverted demand. This shift signals a major structural change in North American tourism. As US states struggle to recover lost Canadian traffic, global competition intensifies, making the situation more complex and long term in nature.
The 2025 year-to-date data presents a clear narrative of transition within US inbound tourism. While overseas markets remain relatively stable with moderate declines, the sharp contraction in Canadian visitors is driving the overall downturn. At the same time, Mexico is emerging as a key growth market, helping to offset some of the losses.
Regional trends reveal a mixed picture, with some areas showing growth and others experiencing significant declines. The data suggests that the United States is entering a phase of slower growth, where reliance on traditional markets such as Canada may need to be reconsidered.
The challenge ahead lies in adapting to these changing dynamics. Strengthening emerging markets, maintaining competitiveness in established regions and addressing the factors contributing to declining Canadian travel will be critical for sustaining the US tourism industry in the coming years.
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Overseas visitors, excluding Canada and Mexico, totalled 34,289,238 in 2025, representing a 2.5% decrease year-on-year, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 870,000 visitors. Compared to the overall international decline, this segment is relatively stable, indicating that long-haul travel demand to the United States remains largely intact but is softening slightly.
A deeper breakdown of overseas regions reveals divergent performance across global markets.
Western Europe remains the largest contributor with 12.58 million visitors, but recorded a 3.7% decline, indicating weakening demand from key mature markets. Asia, another major contributor with 8.91 million visitors, also declined by 2.9%, reflecting ongoing recovery challenges and shifting travel preferences.
In contrast, some regions showed positive growth. Eastern Europe increased by 2.5%, while the Middle East rose by 2.0%, suggesting emerging strength in these markets. Central America recorded the strongest growth at 4.7%, adding over 76,000 visitors, highlighting increasing regional connectivity and travel demand.
However, other regions experienced sharper declines. Africa fell by 11.0%, and Oceania dropped by 7.2%, indicating weaker demand from these long-haul markets. The Caribbean also declined by 4.9%, reflecting broader regional softness.
Overall, the overseas segment demonstrates resilience but lacks strong growth momentum, contributing to the overall slowdown in international arrivals.
The decline in Canadian travel to the United States is driven by a combination of factors, including political tensions, economic considerations and changing consumer sentiment. Currency fluctuations have made travel more expensive, while evolving perceptions about the travel experience have influenced decision-making. Additionally, increased competition from other global destinations has provided Canadians with more attractive alternatives. These factors, combined, are reshaping travel behaviour and reducing the United States’ appeal as a primary destination for Canadian tourists.
The ongoing decline in Canadian visitors across US states represents a significant shift in North American travel dynamics. It is not a temporary setback but a structural transformation driven by changing preferences and external factors. States that once relied heavily on Canadian tourism are now facing economic challenges and must adapt to a new reality. As travel patterns continue to evolve, the United States will need to reassess its strategies to regain competitiveness and rebuild its position in the international tourism market.
The year-wise data from 2022 to 2026 reveals a clear narrative. The United States experienced a strong recovery in tourism, reached a peak in 2025 and is now entering a period of adjustment. The decline in Canadian visitors is a key factor shaping this transition, affecting states in different ways depending on their reliance on international travel.
California and Florida remain relatively stable due to diversified demand, while New York and Nevada face greater challenges due to their dependence on international and discretionary travel. The broader implication is that US tourism is undergoing a structural shift. Growth is no longer guaranteed, and states must adapt to a more competitive and fragmented global travel landscape.
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