Good Saturday afternoon everyone, and buckle up, we have a long 48 hours ahead of us….
This is by far one of the most complex winter storms we have had to forecast in recent memory, with wishy washy model guidance trending north then back south several times over the last few days, on top of the fact this system is only now making it’s way across the Western United States. To everyone reading this…thank you for bearing with us! A clearer picture is starting to finally emerge, and it has all of us in for a high impact event, regardless of snow totals.
Low pressure is beginning to manifest itself at the surface across the Central High Plains this afternoon, and will begin to deepen as it slides eastward tonight and through Sunday. An extensive band of light snow stretches from the Rocky Mountains to Southern Wisconsin, and has been responsible for a few light flurries across the area so far this afternoon. This band will lift north this afternoon/evening, and will intensify primarily to our north as it does so. For our communities north of I-90, light snow showers are expected to become more widespread through the evening and into the early overnight hours tonight…
As the low pressure approaches, warm air will surge north across portions of the viewing area, setting the stage for a nasty mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow, primarily along and just south of the I-90 corridor. In this region of a wintry mix, significant icing accumulation will be possible between roughly 2:00 AM until sometime between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM. Ice accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, making for dangerous travel conditions and making the power grid vulnerable to snapping lines. South of Hwy 18, precipitation is likely to remain all rain. North of Hwy 14, more snow is likely to be in the mix as temperature hover near 32F. During this time, a *Winter Storm Warning* will be in effect for all of Southeastern Minnesota, along with portions of a *Winter Weather Advisory* for Floyd, Howard and Mitchell Counties.
Then comes the blizzard…
Whatever type of precipitation you wind up seeing early-mid Sunday morning, be it freezing rain, sleet, rain or snow…will transition to ALL snow by Sunday afternoon. Not only will the snow be heavy, but it will be very windy by the afternoon, with wind gusts topping 45 to 50 mph across the area, maxing out as high as 65 mph across portions of Northern Iowa. A *Blizzard Warning* goes into effect for ALL of Southeastern Minnesota and Northern Iowa throughout the morning as this transition takes place, and will remain in effect until mid-Monday morning.
In short, snow will transition to icy precipitation for many of us tonight, then back to heavy, wind swept snow by Sunday afternoon, lasting into Monday morning. This will lead to a plethora of hazards:
1.) driving will be dangerous to impossible at times, first due to icy roads, then due to whiteout conditions
2.) power outages, potentially widespread, are anticipated, especially with ice accumulation on lines, then meat by strong winds and heavy snow during the afternoon.
3.) High profile vehicles will be at risk us tipping over in the strong winds Sunday into Monday morning.
4.) Bitterly cold temperatures will rush in Sunday night into early Monday, dropping wind chills as low as -20F at times, leading to a high risk for frostbite & hypothermia during long-duration exposure to the cold.
With all of that said, we strongly encourage that if you plan to travel late Saturday night, through Sunday, and into early Monday morning, that you cancel & postpone your plans. Again, travel will be dangerous to life-threatening, and the cold temperatures will not make for a safe environment for you to be stuck out on the side of the road for several hours. Rescue efforts will be delayed due to the severe winter weather, and tow truck companies will likely cease operations if conditions become too dangerous.
When all is said and done, snow accumulations will be tricky to pin-point, especially with the rain snow mix tonight into early Sunday. However, totals within the 8-12″ range are possible along the Hwy 14 corridor, 6-10″ between I-90 and the Minnesota/Iowa border, 3-6″ along Iowa State Highway 9, and 2-4″ along the Hwy 18 corridor. Regardless of totals, blizzard conditions are too be expected, and impacts will be significant…something we have seen a lot of the last few months.
These hazardous conditions will last into Monday morning, even as snow winds down, due to strong northwesterly winds gusting up to 40 mph, if not stronger. Travelers should anticipate pockets of significantly reduced visibilities through Monday.
Temperatures Monday will only top out in the low-10F’s, so it is likely that wind chills will not make it above 0F. Temperatures drop below 0F Monday night, with wind chills well below 0F expected into early Tuesday morning. It will be bitterly cold, and you will want to bundle up! Temperatures begin to moderate toward mid-week, with highs back in the 40F’s by Thursday.
Another round of light snow moves through Tuesday late afternoon through the evening hours, and could drop another 1-2″ of snow across our area depending on track of of that system. Minor compared to what is only hours away, but something to keep in mind.
We will continuously be updated out Alert Day article on the front page of the website, and well as social media with all the latest information.
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