Sticker shock is not going away in Hawaii. Hotel rates, rental cars, and restaurant tabs are set to stay sky-high into 2026, even as fewer visitors arrive. UHERO, the State of Hawaii’s research arm, projects arrivals will drop about 5% by mid-2026, with costs for both travelers and residents still climbing.
For visitors, that means the price of a Hawaii vacation is not about to ease. Later in this article we will share strategies we use ourselves to beat Hawaii sticker shock.
Visitor counts from Canada remain low, while those from Japan show no signs of recovery. Even U.S. travelers are showing signs of pulling back. The State expects that trend to continue into 2026.
Yet none of that translates into travel bargains. Hotels do not slash rates when demand dips. They close floors and facilities and cut services instead. Airlines reduce flights, not airfares. Restaurants will trim staffing but still raise menu prices. This is what the industry has learned works. That is why visitors will continue to pay $400+ a night for a room and $100 a day for a car, even when the islands report fewer arrivals.
Inflation in Hawaii remains stuck and is primarily driven by housing, food, and energy costs. Those flow straight into hotel bills, airline tickets, and restaurant menus.
For visitors, the result is familiar: a buffet breakfast that easily exceeds $50, a family trip that costs thousands more than expected, and the nagging question of whether Hawaii is still worth it. For residents, the same forces hit every grocery store visit and electric bill.
Jobs in tourism are reportedly slowing. Part-time positions with reduced benefits are growing at a faster rate than full-time ones. Wages may tick up, but they do not keep pace with the price of rent or milk. UHERO points to flat real income. That is just another way of saying residents are not getting ahead. And that is an understatement.
Elsewhere, a slowdown often means discounts. But not in Hawaii. The cost base is simply too high. Airlines will keep schedules tighter than ever, hotels will manage inventory as they’ve learned to do brilliantly, and restaurants will adjust hours and capacity. None of that is set to lower prices for visitors.
UHERO warns that waiting for Hawaii to get cheaper is simply a mistake. The islands rarely roll back costs once they ratchet up. And that is set to be the case again in 2026.
Billions of dollars in public and military projects continue to pour into Hawaii. An $8 billion Navy contract at Pearl Harbor and other federal work are keeping paychecks flowing and cranes in the air, which makes the economy look better from a distance than the tourism numbers suggest.
Visitors should not expect to pay less for an island vacation next year. Hotels will protect high rates. Airlines will manage capacity. And restaurants will continue to raise prices as their own costs continue to climb. Residents will face more of the same: fewer tips, fewer hours, fewer full-time jobs, and higher bills.
Hawaii remains a dream trip, but the sticker shock is not going away. The state says Hawaii is headed into a mild recession. To anyone paying the bills, both residents and visitors, it feels like another year of paying more for the same Hawaii.
The smartest way to save on a Hawaii trip is to plan ahead, using tools like Google Flights and Google Hotels to spot the best prices before you even pack your bags. Editor Jeff found a half price deal on a five-star beachfront property we’re about to tell you about, just that way. You can set price alerts for Google Flights too, another of our strategies.
We also find that traveling mid-week rather than on busy weekends often saves hundreds, and shoulder seasons, such as May or September, usually deliver the lowest fares.
For rental cars, we primarily turn to Costco Travel and Priceline, and we continually monitor prices up to the day of departure to make sure we have the best deal. It’s worth checking Autoslash and Discount Hawaii Car Rentals for their Hawaii rentals too.
When it comes to hotels, it pays to compare OTA’s with direct booking, as properties sometimes offer unadvertised discounts or extras, such as parking or resort credits. Honestly, sometimes there appears to be no logical explanation for where you’ll find the best hotel deal. For those using points or companion certificates, pairing them with careful flight timing can further reduce costs.
What about you? Have higher costs changed your plans for 2026
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It is with great disappointment & sadness that a kamaina probably won’t be able to enjoy their trip within Hawaii due to the excessive fees being added to everything.
True, the airports are poorly maintained w/lousy food, beverage, seating & food options – a terrible “First impression” at all the island airports.
Want to ruin the Hawaiian tourist trade & local parks – Keep adding fees & discriminating against the very people that pay your wages.
Long time regular island visitor with my family over the past 20+ years. How we plan to beat the soaring prices is to choose a different destination. As non-American citizens we have always accepted that Hawaii vacations costed a premium compared to other similar destinations. However, it had gotten to the point where the cost far outweighs even our appreciation of the islands, the beauty and what use to be the welcoming nature. For international travelers like us, the cost now to visit the islands is comparable or more than other tropical destinations on the other side of the world, so that is what we will do. We do hope to come back when prices come back down to reality and tourists are truly welcomed back.
Solution: Short Term Rentals.
Owners adjust prices based on demand just to get their units booked–we are staying at a friend’s condo on BI as I wrote this because for really cheap because it wasn’t booked. Full kitchens and trips to the grocery store mean less eating out. Fully stocked units with beach gear/snorkels mean less of the expensive excursions. No resort fees/wifi fees/parking fees. It’s not what Hawaii tourism wants to hear, since they like to keep tourists where the locals are working (restaurants, spas, tours). But it’s the reality of the situation. We travel from California as a family of three and never do resorts. We use companion airline fares and we rarely eat out. If we do eat out, we hit up the smaller local mom-and-pop eateries and bring home leftovers. There’s a budget-friendly way for tourists to visit the islands, but unfortunately, it doesn’t contribute to the local tourism economy as much.
Hi Guys Well I was trying to book a May 2026 flight the other day before the changeover to Atmos. It was so frustrating to see how many miles are being charged for a flight back home. I tried to do the transfer over to Atmos 2 wks ago and it was not letting me do that either. Now I have given up.
Hawaii IMO beautiful on the outside but getting more hollow inside with transparency, rules, taxes,fees, and skyrocket prices to the tourists.d
Why not stay in a resort condo? No need to spend the money on every meal in a restaurant. Stop at Costco on your way to the property and stock up with what you need for the length of your stay.
Buy your gas at Costco, is is a least $0.50 a gallon less than other options. Travel at times of the day when the airfares are lowest (night flights). The condo will probably have a full kitchen and probably a washer and a dryer as wel as many of the ammenities of the hotels without the resort fees also free parking for your car.
What is a resort condo? We mostly visit Oahu and, as AirBnB’s have mostly been outlawed, the only “condo” one can rent are the short term rentals in and around Waikiki which, unfortunately, are often run down and not that much cheaper than a hotel. Perhaps this is specific to Maui or another island?
There are companies that rent out condos that people own inside resorts. Usually in my experience they are kind of dumps. I have seen lots of condos and airbnb properties in Oahu for rent though. Check the web.
Wow…..Not. True. At. All.
Why would you throw an ill-informed statement out there like that!
Remind me never to rent my wholly owned, In a resort, condo to you!
We have gone to Hawaii for 20 years now minus a couple. We do use our timeshare which maintenance fee’s around $4800. This gives us a month at our favorite place 1 mile south of Kona. The buy in was expensive but we get our use of it. There are ways around that though. We love to snorkel and do it almost daily. We have noticed changes the last few years parking costs almost everywhere now. Groceries are expensive but we grill at the resort most nights and enjoy the people we meet. We have seen most of what is to offer but look forward to the volcano during both day and night. We love the entertainment at the local spots and have made friends over the years. It is always something to look forward too and leaving the cold of Iowa for a while.
We go to Hawaii a couple times a year, but less often these days. We already know the part of the island we like and there are four or five hotels that work for us. If we travel in shoulder seasons, we can usually snag a good rate.
Restaurants? Forget it. Not paying crazy prices for mediocre food. We grab poke, snacks, and drinks, then eat on the balcony or at the park. Maybe we’ll hit a local diner or brewpub once or twice, but eating in Waikiki is off the list.
With a Costco rental car and a cheap west coast flight, it’s still pretty affordable. The only thing I haven’t cracked is the ridiculous hotel valet and parking fees. Looks like there’s no way around that one.
I’m a business owner in the past 10 years the cost of goods, labor, taxes and insurance have all gone up significantly. These costs are passed on to the consumer.
In this climate expecting resort stay costs to fall is unrealistic.
My advise is be flexible, use third party travel sites, when possible bundle your resort stay with flight and rental car which can save you a bunch.
Also December and January are excellent months to book travel to the islands especially with Costco Travel where in December they offer the 12 days of travel specials. We’ll be on Maui in October staying at Grand Wailea using the last package I booked back in December.
The article fails to mention Maui’s planned elimination of short term rentals. This also drives away long time visitors who won’t stay in a hotels. They prefer condos where they can stay for a reasonable cost
We used to visit Hawaii every other year, but with the soaring prices across the Islands, we’ve decided to skip it entirely. This year, we’re heading to Australia and New Zealand. Next year, we’ve planned two trips to Europe, and our journey to the Far East is already booked for January 2027. We genuinely hope things turn around soon. Las Vegas is facing similar challenges—corporate greed and inflated costs are keeping people away. Travelers are simply exploring better-value destinations. It’s that straightforward.
Prices for vacation rentals *have* actually come down. I am surprised this article mentions only hotels.
Does Costco Kahului offer instore discounts on any Maui activities? Any savings there?
For example, at our local Costco warehouses we can pick up local ski hill lift passes for discounted rates, in store only and not online.
My trip is Jan 2026, for two weeks. The STVR is reasonably priced, as is the car rental through Costco. The airfare cost was mitigated by points so was quite okay.
I am finding the activities to be hugely expensive; one luau was priced at just over $1000 $ CAD for three of us. Ouch. ( Not my thing really.)
I found a sunset cruise at $160 p/p CAD. That is an option that sounds fun, have done something similar before.
Does Costco Kahului have any discounts in store for local activities/attractions? There is nothing online.
This is likely our last trip to HI, I want to make the most of it ( except for a luau.).
I would also look into a whale watching cruise while in Maui since you will be there at the best time of year for it…
A great alternative is the Visit Las Vegas 50% off sale good until midnight today. Those who want to save money can visit the Ninth Island for huge savings with less or no time flying.
I can never understand why more don’t look at STR. What most people do not realize is that many of these “so-called resorts” each unit is privately owned. We are taxed on Hotel property tax (yes, Hotel, even when you don’t have an oven, and yet there is a restaurant on the property). There is a front desk, but that does not mean every owner pays a % for utilization of a front desk. Vacation Shoppers need to be more savvy and will find fantastic deals, take that savings, and enjoy a dinner out or a sunset cruise. Airbnb and VRBO are perfect for searching. Hotels are big, expensive and corporate.
We’re going to enjoy every minute of our 6 week trip to Maui as it may be our last. This is sad
6 weeks sounds incredible!! Where do you stay/ what type of accommodations do you use? Do you move to multiple locations? Do you make an itinerary?
Tax & spend government officials are at the heart of the Hawaii problems. Three things hurt Maui.
1st Covid
2nd Hurricane induced wildfires where old and worn utility poles snapped with fires resulting.
3rd Mayor Bissen and his STR agenda being a reason for visitors not make reservations to Maui. The uncertainty keeps them away hurting the local economy.
Grocery stores, restaurants, house cleaners, tour guides, sea adventures, rental establishments, golf enthusiasts, rental companies, resorts and others stop money from coming in to the economy.
Hawaii’s solution to lower tourist bookings….raise those prices! A guaranteed tourist magnet! (ROFL).
The reality is that the middle class has effectively been shut out of the islands which are in the process of becoming an enclave for the very rich. “Greed is good”. Priceline is a good deal but let me share one trick, never buy the opening page offers. I find hidden specials on later page 6, $22. Vs $70 on pg 1 (same car, same vendor)
As my Tutu used to say “careful what you ask for”.
One way to trim costs: Stay at a short term rental.
Less expensive than a hotel and you can make your own meals. Then, take those savings and eat at a restaurant a few times and tip generously when you do.
I have not been to Hawaii since before COVID . I am really sad to read all the negative comments. I am planning a trip in November & am looking forward to it. I am flying into Kona & staying at an air B & B for a few days. Then I am flying to Honolulu. I have to admit that I am “cheating” on my trip as friends own the air B & B & my son has lived in Honolulu for close to 30 years so I will be staying with him. Not everyone has this luxury, I realize. Despite the negatives, I am looking forward to my trip. I am 80 years old so hopefully this won’t be my “last” trip.
A sorry scenario. As much as I dislike the thought, just may have to bank my weeks and travel elsewhere … Or stay home. :0/
Why is there no mention of vacation rentals? Hotel lobbiests putting on the squeeze? Hotels are little boxes piled on top of each other, with fees for almost everything you need or want, parking being a great example, lack of being able to cook your own meals being another. Is this “Hawaii Travel News” article just another example of who controls your informtion input?
“Hotels do not slash rates when demand dips.”
Balderdash!
In the wake of the Great Recession (2008-2011), we were staying at the Four Seasons Manele for $275/night, at the Four Seasons Koele (now the Sensei) for $225/night, and the Grand Wailea for $295; when all these resorts had been charging $500-$800 in 2007.
If there is another significant recession and tourism drops, resorts will once again charge reasonable prices. Until then, they will continue to charge whatever the market will bear.
Another tip is to monitor your already-booked flight and hotel room for a price drop. I booked a United Airlines first class ticket for mid-January 2026 back in March 2025 for $6,650. I kept checking the price several times a week and in June price for the ticket had dropped by $1,089.01 so I called United and got a travel credit for that amount. And just today the ticket price went down another $836.16 so I called United again this morning and got another future travel credit for that amount. So the ticket price now stands at $4,724.83. I’m not expecting it to drop much further. — Also my Halekulani hotel room dropped in price by about 8% since I booked it in March so I called them and had the rate adjusted down. Easy. Just babysit your existing airline and hotel reservations, you will often catch price drops.
Where are you flying from? I hope it’s a lie flat cabin for that kind of money!
Spot on, I use Costco Travel for car rentals primarily, I also use Hawaii Discount and have found they both offer the best rates, options of cars, and agencies. I book a car early, then periodically check on the rental rates and if they go lower, cancel the original reservation and re-book with the new lower cost reservation. Both Costco and Discount Hawaii offer this option without penalty to prepayment. But, you have to take the time to periodically check the rates.
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